{"id":2957,"date":"2026-08-10T10:10:20","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T01:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/?p=2957"},"modified":"2026-08-10T10:10:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T01:10:20","slug":"202608","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/container-market-report\/202608.html","title":{"rendered":"“China Captures 80% of Containership Orders, While the Reflagging from the Panama Accelerates”, etc. \/ Container Market Report August 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n
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Iran\u2019s Economy Nears Its Limit, The Revolutionary Guard Is Also Being Pushed into a Corner<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following the military confrontation in the first half of 2026, the war between the United States and Iran has now entered a phase of ceasefire and dialogue under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), although tensions remain high. President Trump also has limited time before the November 4 midterm elections. For Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), meanwhile, the cost of maintaining the status quo is reaching its limit. Prolonged economic sanctions, continuing military tensions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are inflicting increasingly severe damage on Iran\u2019s economy, which remains heavily dependent on oil exports. The IRGC itself owns and operates a vast network of affiliated companies, and prolonged economic paralysis could eventually undermine both its financial resources and its power base. In our view, it is now only a matter of time before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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U.S. GDP Slows, but Consumer Spending Remains Strong, Supported by AI Investment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
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On July 24, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) implemented comprehensive new tariff measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Following the U.S. Supreme Court\u2019s ruling in February 2026 invalidating the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the Trump administration temporarily shifted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and imposed a uniform 10% tariff. The new Section 301 measures have now replaced that temporary tariff regime. Under Section 122, tariffs may generally be imposed for no more than 150 days without congressional approval for an extension, making July 24 the deadline for the temporary measures. For products imported from Japan that are subject to the new measures, the tariff rate is, in principle, capped at 12.5%. More specifically, the applicable tariff is adjusted according to the existing Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) duty rate so that the combined tariff rate falls within a range of 10% to 12.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on July 30, real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.5% in the April\u2013June quarter of 2026. This represented a slowdown from the 2.1% growth recorded in the first quarter and fell short of market expectations of around 2.0\u20132.1%. Personal consumption, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased at an annualized rate of 3.2% from the previous quarter, accelerating sharply from just 0.5% in the first quarter and providing significant support to overall economic growth. The Trump administration\u2019s tax-cut measures and the FIFA World Cup, hosted by the three North American countries\u2014the United States, Canada and Mexico\u2014also appear to have provided a tailwind. Improvements in real disposable income and strong demand for durable goods, including automobiles, were among the factors supporting consumer spending. Business investment increased at an annualized rate of 8.4% from the previous quarter, driven largely by strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers. Residential investment also rose at an annualized rate of 1.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the external front, exports increased at an annualized rate of 4.5%, while imports rose by 11.5%. The particularly strong increase in imports of AI-related products, semiconductors and telecommunications equipment outpaced export growth and weighed on overall GDP growth. Nevertheless, we believe that the underlying U.S. economy remains resilient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to data released by Eurostat on July 30, real GDP in the euro area grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the April\u2013June quarter of 2026 and by 1.0% year-on-year. On an annualized basis, the growth rate was 1.8%. Across the 27-member European Union as a whole, GDP increased by 0.5% from the previous quarter and by 1.2% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite rising energy prices amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, the European economy has shown a certain degree of resilience. Among the major economies, Germany recorded quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.2%, returning to modest positive growth after weakness in the previous quarter. France also grew by 0.2%, maintaining a steady recovery supported by improving domestic demand, while Italy posted growth of 0.2% and continued to demonstrate resilience. Ireland stood out with particularly strong growth of 3.9%, driven largely by increased business activity among multinational companies based in the country, particularly in the IT and pharmaceutical sectors. This was a major factor pushing up the overall euro-area growth figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the heatwave across Europe has caused electricity and gas prices to surge as extreme temperatures have increased demand for air conditioning. At the same time, rising river-water temperatures and drought have reduced the generating capacity of nuclear and hydroelectric power plants. With Europe becoming increasingly dependent on gas-fired power generation, there is no time to lose in bringing the escalating situation in the Middle East to an early resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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From Shipbuilding to EVs and Drones – The Reality of China\u2019s Dominance in Global Markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
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Let us take a look at some of the products and materials in which China currently holds a dominant share of the global market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the clean energy and decarbonization sectors, China accounts for more than 80\u201390% of the global solar panel market and over 60% of the global lithium-ion battery market for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems. CATL, the world\u2019s largest battery manufacturer, maintains its No. 1 position globally, while other Chinese companies, including BYD, collectively account for a substantial share of the market. Chinese manufacturers also hold leading global positions in key lithium-ion battery materials and components, including separators, anode materials and cathode materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In electric vehicles, BYD is competing with U.S.-based Tesla for the top position in global EV sales and has established a significant presence not only in finished vehicles but also through its vertically integrated supply chain, including batteries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to electronics and information and communications technology, Lenovo maintains the world\u2019s No. 1 position in personal computers, with a global market share of approximately 23\u201324%. In mobile telecommunications infrastructure, Huawei remains the global leader. In liquid crystal displays (LCDs), including both large and small-to-medium-sized panels, BOE Technology Group holds the world\u2019s No. 1 position in displays for televisions and smartphones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In smartphones, individual Chinese manufacturers trail global leaders such as South Korea\u2019s Samsung and U.S.-based Apple. However, when the shipments of Chinese brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and Transsion are combined, they account for more than half of global smartphone shipments. In the security and surveillance camera market, Hikvision and Dahua occupy the world\u2019s No. 1 and No. 2 positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In advanced equipment, drones and transportation-related industries, DJI maintains an overwhelming No. 1 position in the global market for consumer, aerial-photography and industrial drones, with a market share of more than 70%. In shipbuilding, led by China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and other major Chinese shipbuilders, China ranks No. 1 in the world, with a share exceeding 50% in all three major indicators\u2014ship completions, new orders and orderbook volume\u2014well ahead of South Korea and Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China also accounts for approximately 50% of global crude steel production, led by major producers such as China Baowu Steel Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of particular concern is China\u2019s dominant position in rare earth processing and permanent magnets. Its influence extends beyond the mining of rare earths to refining technologies and high-performance magnets, including neodymium magnets used in EV motors and precision machinery, where China holds an estimated 70\u201390% share of the global market. Following China\u2019s export restrictions introduced in April 2025, European prices for dysprosium, which is used in EV motors, have risen to as much as eight times their pre-restriction levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s presence and influence across global industries continue to grow. Since the beginning of 2026, China has also tightened export restrictions on dual-use items destined for Japan, adding further upward pressure on rare earth prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a51,540 Trillion in Chinese Money Sits Idle, While the Global Race for AI Funding Heats Up<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A huge amount of money is piling up in China\u2019s banks. As of the end of June, the gap between outstanding bank deposits and loans in China had widened to RMB 63.81 trillion (approximately \u00a51,540 trillion), the largest since comparable statistics became available in 1997.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With growing economic uncertainty amid the worsening situation in the Middle East, both businesses and households have become increasingly reluctant to borrow and are instead building up their savings. According to the People\u2019s Bank of China, outstanding deposits stood at RMB 346.44 trillion at the end of June, up 8.2% from a year earlier, while outstanding loans increased by 5.2% to RMB 282.63 trillion. As of June, deposit growth had outpaced loan growth for the second consecutive year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, fixed-asset investment, including investment in factory construction, declined by 5.7% year-on-year in the January\u2013June period, while private-sector investment fell by 8.5%. Against this backdrop, we can see signs of China attempting to divert public attention from its domestic economic difficulties toward external issues, including criticism of Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global corporate bond issuance reached approximately $3.6813 trillion (about \u00a5589 trillion, calculated at $1.00 = \u00a5160) in the January\u2013June period, setting a new record high for the second consecutive year. Against the backdrop of booming demand related to artificial intelligence (AI), competition among companies to raise funds has become increasingly intense. At the same time, investors have begun demanding higher yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan\u2019s exports are also growing strongly. The country\u2019s total exports reached a record high of \u00a560.6605 trillion in the January\u2013June period of 2026, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year. This marked the first double-digit growth in seven half-year periods. Semiconductor-related products led the increase, supported by the accelerating adoption and use of artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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China Captures 80% of Containership Orders, While the Reflagging from the Panama Accelerates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest report from maritime research firm LinerLytica, the containership orderbook has now exceeded 40% of the existing global containership fleet, reaching an all-time high of 1,712 vessels with a combined capacity of 13.72 million TEU. Eight out of every ten containerships currently on order are being built at Chinese shipyards, while 10 of the world\u2019s top 15 shipyards by orderbook are located in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LinerLytica also reports that, since March this year, detentions of Panama-flagged vessels by Chinese authorities have surged by more than 700%, prompting 101 containerships to change their flag. Of these, 56 are Chinese-owned vessels, while the remaining 45 are managed by companies from 14 different countries. The vessels have been reflagged mainly to the Marshall Islands, the Bahamas and Liberia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to LinerLytica, these changes have already reduced the number of Panama-flagged containerships by 12%, and the remaining 731 vessels could potentially follow suit. The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) views the sharp increase in detentions of Panama-flagged vessels by Chinese port authorities as a retaliatory measure following the Panamanian Supreme Court\u2019s decision in January this year to invalidate CK Hutchison\u2019s concessions to operate the ports of Balboa and Cristobal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Container Freight Rates Surge, ONE Triples Its Full-Year Profit Forecast to $900 Million<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Short-term container freight rates on the trans-Pacific trade to North America remained elevated, supported by planned rate increases by major container carriers. The United States introduced new tariff measures under Section 301 of the Trade Act on July 24. Despite front-loading of imports ahead of the implementation of the new tariffs, we expect container volumes into the United States to remain notably strong for some time. In contrast, short-term freight rates from Shanghai to Europe and the Mediterranean continued to decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Drewry\u2019s Cancelled Sailings Tracker released on July 31, the cancellation rate across the major East-West trade routes for Weeks 32\u201336 (August 3\u2013September 6) stands at 8%, unchanged from the previous week. Of all announced blank sailings, 60% are on the eastbound trans-Pacific trade, 26% on the Asia\u2013Europe and Mediterranean trades, and 14% on the westbound transatlantic trade.<\/p>\n\n\n

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On August 4, Ocean Network Express (ONE) revised upward its forecast for full-year profit after tax for the fiscal year ending March 2027, tripling its previous forecast of $300 million to $900 million (approximately \u00a5144 billion, calculated at $1.00 = \u00a5160).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, ONE\u2019s three parent companies have also revised upward their consolidated earnings forecasts for the coming fiscal year. Based on their respective equity interests in ONE, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK), with a 38% stake, is expected to recognize approximately \u00a554.7 billion annually, while Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (\u201cK\u201d Line), each with a 31% stake, are expected to recognize approximately \u00a544.6 billion. These amounts will be reflected as their respective shares of profit from investments accounted for using the equity method in their consolidated results for the fiscal year ending March 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in practice, we assume that only a portion of ONE\u2019s $900 million profit\u2014perhaps around half, or approximately $450 million\u2014would be distributed to its parent companies as dividends, with the remainder retained within ONE as retained earnings. Such funds could be used for its own working capital and future investments, including orders for new containerships and the expansion of its owned container fleet. We hope that these earnings will be reinvested to support ONE\u2019s future growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ONE\u2019s upward earnings revision has also contributed significantly to higher forecasts for the consolidated ordinary profits of its three parent companies for the fiscal year ending March 2027: \u00a5250 billion for NYK, \u00a5225 billion for MOL and \u00a5135 billion for \u201cK\u201d Line. This clearly demonstrates just how much ONE is contributing to the performance of its parent companies, like a truly devoted and hardworking member of the family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Container Factory Shipments Hit a New High for the Year, Supporting Container Prices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The price of newly built containers in July remained unchanged from June at $1,750 per 20-foot container. Although steel prices remained stable, prices for flooring materials and paint declined by just under 3% from the previous month. Nevertheless, container prices were maintained at the same level, which we believe reflects manufacturers\u2019 expectations of the seasonal increase in summer demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New container production in July totaled 767,186 TEU (Dry: 730,887 TEU; Reefer: 36,299 TEU). Compared with the previous month, total production increased by 101,641 TEU (Dry: +104,032 TEU; Reefer: -2,391 TEU). In percentage terms, total production increased by 15.0% month-on-month, with Dry production up 16.6% and Reefer production down 6.2%. July recorded the highest monthly production of Dry containers over the past year. As has generally been observed in the market, the seasonal production peak appears to have shifted forward by two to three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New container inventories at factories stood at 1,403,283 TEU at the end of July (Dry: 1,339,309 TEU; Reefer: 63,974 TEU). Compared with the previous month, total factory inventories decreased by 79,965 TEU (Dry: -81,879 TEU; Reefer: +1,914 TEU). In percentage terms, total inventories declined by 5.4%, with Dry inventories down 5.8% and Reefer inventories up 3.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factory shipments in July totaled 847,151 TEU (Dry: 812,766 TEU; Reefer: 34,385 TEU). Dry container shipments surpassed the previous month\u2019s level to reach their highest monthly volume so far this year. We believe that this strong pace of shipments was a major factor supporting new container prices in July and keeping them unchanged from June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Overcoming Opposition Delays, the Takaichi Administration Moves Forward with Tax Cuts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
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The Takaichi administration is facing one challenge after another. One of them is the public opinion polls conducted by major newspapers on the approval rating of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi\u2019s Cabinet. According to polls conducted by NHK and other major media organizations, the Cabinet\u2019s approval rating has fallen to the mid-50% range. Despite the Takaichi administration working so hard, the media continue to take an opposing stance and stir up public sentiment in an effort to increase their television ratings and newspaper circulation. At the same time, the opposition parties, as if opposing the government were their primary role, have repeatedly prolonged deliberations in an attempt to block legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A good example is the nearly one year wasted in unproductive debate over two important policy objectives of the Takaichi administration: its election pledge to reduce the consumption tax on food from 8% to 0% for two years, and the proposal contained in the coalition agreement concluded between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party in October 2025 to reduce the 465 seats in the House of Representatives by approximately 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reduction in the number of seats has consequently been postponed. Although the opposition parties themselves supported tax cuts in their election platforms, they have opposed the Takaichi administration\u2019s tax-cut proposal merely because of differences over the scale of the reduction, its scope and the method of implementation. Even within the LDP, there are former prime ministers who take the political position that tax cuts require alternative sources of revenue and that, if no such funding source can be secured, it is acceptable to abandon an election pledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, on August 5, the government decided at a Cabinet meeting to reduce the consumption tax on food to 1% for a limited period of two years beginning in April 2027. We would have liked the opposition parties to work promptly and constructively with the government to develop a practical plan for implementation, rather than spending so much time on political debate. LDP members of the House of Representatives should also recognize that many of them were elected with the benefit of Prime Minister Takaichi\u2019s election pledges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another challenge is the weakening of the Japanese yen. On July 21, the yen fell to around \u00a5162.20 against the U.S. dollar in the New York foreign exchange market, reaching its weakest level in 39 years and seven months, since December 1986.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July 31, in coordination with the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan\u2019s intervention to sell U.S. dollars and buy yen, the U.S. authorities also carried out a coordinated intervention by selling euros and buying yen. The exchange rate has since recovered to around \u00a5157 to the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a weaker yen pushes up import prices, we hope that the Bank of Japan will make the bold decision to raise interest rates and, first of all, bring the yen back to a more appropriate and stronger level in order to reduce inflationary pressure. We firmly believe that this would be a more effective economic policy than tax cuts or temporary cash benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Magnitude-7.1 Kumamoto Earthquake Raises the Question: Are We Ready to Rebuild a Strong Japan?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Finally, at around 4:27 p.m. on July 28, an earthquake measuring the maximum level of 7 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale, with a magnitude of 7.1, struck Kumamoto Prefecture. This was the first time since the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake that a seismic intensity of 7 had been recorded in Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kumamoto Prefecture also experienced devastating earthquakes ten years ago, when a magnitude 6.5 foreshock with a maximum seismic intensity of 7 struck on April 14, 2016, followed by the magnitude 7.3 main shock, also measuring a maximum intensity of 7, on April 16. We sincerely hope that the lessons learned from the experience ten years ago will be fully utilized so that the daily lives of the people affected can be restored as quickly as possible. In responding to natural disasters of this magnitude, we believe that the government should consider extraordinary measures, even beyond the ordinary legal framework, provided that such measures can gain the understanding and support of the Japanese people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To all our politicians and government officials: with the Takaichi administration facing so many serious challenges both at home and abroad, if you do not firmly support it now, when will you?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We believe that what Japan needs now is to fully recognize the difficult circumstances in which the country finds itself, support the Takaichi administration, and rebuild a strong Japan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran\u2019s Economy Nears Its Limit, The Revolutionary Guard Is Also Being Pushed into a Corner Following the military confrontation in the first half of 2026, the war between the United …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-container-market-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2957"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2957\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2972,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2957\/revisions\/2972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ef-international.com\/e\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}