Container Market Report September 2019

    In late August, I visited Ocean Network Express (ONE) in Singapore. It was 6 staff in all this time. It was the quick trip of 3 days and 2 nights, but served as the introduction of the staff whom they did not usually see the face in the exchanges only for email. We had a lunch with ONE staff and we realized that it is necessary for us to see each other face to face while we are exchanging only emails every days. Each of ONE staff looked lively and brightly in comparison with one year ago. I realized that they felt confident by themselves after working hard and achieved the result.
    There was gain one more. I made the hotel reservation through Expedia as the travel agency quoted the hotel rate high and we are a large number of people. It was that we could reserve the hotel charge of the first-rate hotel $100 per night cheaper. In addition, I asked for the pickup of the airport incidentally. The return departure time at Singapore was 8 a.m. so that we had to leave the hotel at 5 a.m. However, we had been picked up and sent off the airport without a problem and by cheerful accounts.
I became so glad to see them prepare for lunch box and water expressly at the time of check-out as I told them departure being 5 a.m. at the arrival to the hotel because it was with breakfast.
    We were able to move smoothly on time because one of our staff prepared for “GRAB” on this trip which make use of a private car like a Taxi in Singapore.
It could be very hard to catch a taxi recently in Shanghai, China, especially at the event place. An unreasonable amount of money is required even if we could use the unlicensed taxis. In that respect, it is nice that we could use a private car as a taxi like American Uber system. I think it make sense we could make good use of the private car. I want to expect the spread of the same system in Japan eagerly.

    President Trump imposed 15% of additional duties to a Chinese product (targeted for a household appliance, clothing) worth the value of 110 billion dollars from Sep. 1. This is the 4th economic sanctions, applying to 3,243 items. Owing to avoid the influence of the year end Christmas sales battle approximately Chinese products out of them including the note PC etc worth160 billion dollars will be applied 15% tax on and after Dec 15. On the other hand, the United States is going to raise an addition duty to 30% from 25% for the first (34 billion dollars) of the trade war that began in July, 2018 from October 1, the second (16 billion dollars), the third (200 billion dollars). China will impose additional duty, 5~10% as retaliative tariff divided into 2 times for 75 billion dollars in total. Additional duty of 5~15% will be imposed to 1717 items on crude oil, soybeans etc on Sep. 1 and 3,361 items on wood, cars on Dec. 15. On the other hand, China went for measures to present the United States to World Trade Organization (WTO). The talks mood of the two countries fades away, and this will enable the trade friction of the two countries seems to add to intensity in the long term.
    According to the employment statistics in Aug. of the ministry of U.S. labor the number of the non-agriculture section employees remain in 130,000 increase compared with the month before but it is in trend of a light slowdown. The outlook on business conditions index of the manufacturing industry in Aug. was less than 50 to be good enough for the first time in 3 years and was less than a border of the good or recession after an interval of 3 years. The manufacturing industry in the United States is affected by the U.S. and China trade war, too. Unemployment rate of August, 3.7% (same as the last month). The mean hourly wage is 3.2% increase 28.11 dollars from a year earlier. It maintains the growth of the 3% stand for 13 consecutive months
In form to accept the demand of the President Trump, Federal Reserve Board (FRB) reduced policy rate 0.25% in July, more after an interval of 10 and a half years, but seeing observation of the present condition increasing uncertainty of the economy worldwide with U.S. and China trade war, British and EU secession problem etc a further reduction in interest rates by FRB will be expected.

    According to Shipping Guide, container loading ratio of this year is 77% for the first-quarter (from Jan. to Mar.), 74% for second-quarter (from Apr. to Jun), 72% for third-quarter (Jul to Sep) in the Asia/Europe route made little difference than the same period of the last year but it is bigger than one in 2017 when it maintained nearly 90% and it greatly lowers. Delivery of Super Mega containership will peak in the Asia/Europe route next year.
Ironically, the injection of Super Mega containerships caused a freight rate drop and a shipping line may draw the dream of the monopoly with it. Other shipping lines could survive by all means in the situation and is it conceivable that a shipping line who injected super mega containerships may be put into a situation they could not collect the cost.

    New container production price of the end of Aug is $1,700 per 20f. Total number of New Containers in China factories is 1,058,850 TEU (Dry: 993,050 TEU, Reefer: 65,800 TEU).

    I had a chance to meet the top of 3 Japanese coastal lines of Kinkai Yusen Kaisha, MOL Coastal Shipping and Kawasaki Kinkai Kisen Kaisha.
I asked them whether it was possible for them to go out to Asia in the future besides coastal service. It is a thought that it is difficult because there is the regulation only applied to the coastal shipping lines. Putting the foreign seamen on the coastal ships should connect to resolution of labor shortage. When we consider about shipping circle of Japan I am afraid that the future of the marine transportation in Japan as far as we should terminate the regulation of the coastal shipping lines. It is necessary to make marine transportation an attractive one so that a younger people joins in marine transportation business with pleasure.
    In addition, I had a glory to meet President Hattori of Tokyo Port Terminal Co.,Ltd and President Morooka, Yokohama Kawasaki International Port Corp. As for President Hattori, it was just taken up its new post this June and both of them are from Nippon Yusen. On the other hand, President Morooka is the person whom I had known well when I worked for Triton. EF International has been established the head office in Yokohama and transmit Japan’ appeal to the world from Yokohama. We clicked together to support Yokohama Port develop more to be the excellent container port in the world.